By the year 2020, the demand for cocoa is predicted to rise by some 30%. This is coupled with production constraint on the supply side. The chocolate industry has grown at a study state within the last 100 years into an $80 billion a year global industry. With demand outstripping supply means the crisis is looming the multi-billion chocolate industry. Around 3.5 million tons of cocoa are produced each year. But rising incomes in emerging markets like India and China, combined with anticipated economic recovery in the rich North, have led to industry forecasts of a 30% growth in demand to be more than 4.5 million tons by 2020. This should be good news for farmers and businesses alike.
But complacency and disregard for the livelihoods of more than five million small-scale family farmers who grow 90% of the world's cocoa mean that the industry may simply be unable to provide sufficient supply to meet the demand. In a likely event of a drought as a result of a climate change, there will there be a massive shortage of cocoa. This will turn chocolate into a more expensive, luxury product. London chocolatier, Marc DE Marquette told the independent that a £1 chocolate bar " will be a thing of the past" whiles John Mason of the Ghana-based Nature Conservation Research Council also says "In 20 years, chocolate will be like caviar". It will become so rare and expensive that the average Joe wouldn’t be able to afford it" Apart from chocolate becoming very expensive, chocolate also will lose its quality, taste, and health benefits. August Kennedy, editor of trade magazine Kennedy's confection, said that chocolate bar of the future will be sludgy in texture and sweeter in taste, as cheaper ingredients such as sugar and vegetable oil will be used instead of the more expensive cocoa.